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加息路漫漫

07月05日, 2023 | 5分钟阅读时长

在最新的6月FOMC会议上,美联储决定自2022年3月以来首次保持利率不变。然而,鲍威尔主席在会后的新闻发布会上从 "鸽派 "转向了“鹰派”的基调,让市场感到意外。他强调,目前暂停加息为未来行动增加了灵活性,并延续了当前加息周期放缓的趋势。未来的决策将取决于通胀、劳动力市场状况、经济不确定性以及其他关键经济数据。

 

从美联储最新的点阵图来看,官员们现在认为美联储基金利率今年将达到5.6%的峰值,高于美联储3月的前期预测5.1%。这表明美联储今年可能还会再加息两次。鉴于美联储的双重任务之一是确保价格稳定,FOMC委员们很可能希望将利率保持在较高水平,直到通胀接近2%为止。

 

美联储有另一个任务,即追求最大就业。在新闻发布会上,鲍威尔提到劳动力市场正在逐渐趋于平衡,但劳动力供应仍然紧张。尽管5月非农就业岗位增加了33.9万个,但由于大型科技公司的裁员,失业率已上升至3.7%[1]。华尔街银行预计到今年年底将裁员总数达到1.1万人[2]。小型和中型金融机构也面临资金流动不足的挑战,预计裁员将更加严重。

 

除了源于通胀和劳动力市场的担忧外,美国经济的前景也不容乐观。美联储此前曾估计美国经济今年仅增长0.4%,但随后将预测值提高到1%[3]。最近的零售销售和消费者信心数据表现温和,稍微缓解了对经济前景的担忧。

 

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/jobs-report-may-2023-.html#:~:text=Nonfarm%20payrolls%20in%20May%20increased%20by%20339%2C000%2C%20better,jobless%20rate%20was%20the%20highest%20since%20October%202022.

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/e3f25dde-c594-49dd-9605-259ac3e91cfb

[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/27/economy/q1-us-gdp-economy/index.html

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